Don’t underestimate the power of hydrogen to disrupt the auto industry
There’s a lot of money to be made from telling people what’s going to happen in the future, but the truly disruptive innovations never come from commentators or analysts. They come from people making things.
Even when the iPhone was unveiled by Steve Jobs in 2007 it took several years before people started to realise the transformative effect it would have on our lives. In short, people are not very good at predicting the future. The next revolutionary consumer product may have already been released and we are none the wiser.
It is with this in mind that some of the smartest and successful automakers are experimenting with hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Late last year Honda joined the ranks of major car manufacturers including Toyota, BMW and Hyundai, all of whom will be releasing an FCEV passenger car for sale in Japan and North America.
The car, developed alongside US auto giant GM, will be based on the recently launched compact SUV, the Honda CR-V, and will begin production in 2024. Given the lack of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure in the US, it probably won’t sell very well. Just 18,892 new FCEVs were sold globally last year, compared with 10.5 million new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Honda, Toyota, BMW and Hyundai, will all be releasing a hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle passenger car for sale.
But Honda, Toyota, Hyundai and BMW are not expecting to rake in the cash with their first generation of FCEVs. Or probably even their second or third. The vehicles are a bet that once hydrogen becomes more widely available thanks to its adoption by buses and heavy goods vehicles, aviation, motorsports and industry that they will be in pole position to sell their vehicles to the public.
Even then, they are unlikely to outsell BEVs within the passenger car segment. For the vast majority of people, the lower costs associated with BEVs will mean hydrogen isn’t for them. But for some consumers, hydrogen will be exactly what they’re looking for.
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It is no coincidence that Honda, BMW and Hyundai’s FCEVs are all SUVs. Despite the surge in petrol prices in recent years thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, SUVs and pickups have a whopping 78% market share in the U.S., according to Marklines data.
America has been one of the slowest developed markets in the world to embrace BEVs because the things they like doing – putting their families in large vehicles and driving them for long distances, often to remote locations – are not yet possible with BEVs. They are absolutely possible with hydrogen FCEVs though.
The range of FCEVs is much closer to what can be expected from a petrol equivalent, hydrogen fuel can be transported to places far beyond the grid, and larger vehicles aren’t weighed down with huge batteries.
BMW’s iX5 Hydrogen is an SUV based on the current X5. The range of FCEVs is much closer to what can be expected from a petrol equivalent.
BMW’s iX5 Hydrogen is an SUV based on the current X5. A pilot fleet of fewer than 100 vehicles are in the process of being distributed, including to members of the press, in anticipation of possible serial production.
The hydrogen that supplies the fuel cell is stored in two 700-bar tanks made of carbon-fibre reinforced plastic, and together hold almost 6kg of hydrogen, giving the BMW iX5 Hydrogen a range of 504 km (313 miles). Filling up the tanks takes only three to four minutes.
When hydrogen is converted into electricity via a fuel cell, it produces only water vapour as a by-product. When the hydrogen is made by splitting water with electrolysers powered by renewable energy, it is the cleanest fuel on the planet.
The Hyundai Nexo is also a hydrogen-powered SUV and boasts even greater range than the BMW iX5 Hydrogen: 413 miles after a 5-minute refuel. It is a premium vehicle that includes semi-autonomous driving and a host of other cutting-edge technologies. It is clearly aimed at consumers for whom spending a little more to get the best experience possible is the norm. This is one of the areas in which hydrogen FCEVs can expect to thrive.
America has been one of the slowest developed markets in the world to embrace BEVs because the things they like doing – putting their families in large vehicles and driving them for long distances, often to remote locations – are not yet possible with BEVs. They are absolutely possible with hydrogen FCEVs though. FCEV’s have no loss of performance in cold temperatures unlike pure battery vehicles.
Other consumers will need a hydrogen vehicle for more practical reasons. In Norway, 80pc of new passenger vehicle sales are now BEVs thanks to incentives that make it very difficult to buy anything else. Yet, despite the overwhelming economic incentives to buy a BEV, almost 20pc are still opting for petrol vehicles. Some Norwegians like to spend their holidays in the mountains, far from any charging infrastructure and often facing freezing temperatures.
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Renault’s mileage calculator says that its Zoe will carry you 234 miles at a steady 31 mph when the temperature is 20 degrees C, but 187 miles (a drop of 20%) at 5 degrees C and just 152 miles (35% less) at minus 5.
By contrast, BMW reported no lost performance when testing its iX5 Hydrogen at minus 20 degrees C in the Arctic last year. In a further demonstration of FCEVs all-weather performance, UK-based zero-emission truck manufacturer Tevva in February revealed its hydrogen-electric prototype completed almost 350 miles on a single tank and charge at temperatures averaging about zero.
When the time is right and the investment in hydrogen infrastructure has been made, a market for hydrogen FCEVs seems highly likely to emerge.
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